Michael Alexander Smith – Real Estate Broker at Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices
Each Executive Summary Report is for a specific TRREB zone combination and includes a map of the included zones and a 4 page summary for each property type (detached, semi-detached, townhomes, condos)
The Information / statistics you can find in each Executive Summary Report include:
Similar to last month, rather than trying to cover all stats, we’ve focused on sales, new listings, and inventory. Why? Given the extremely low number of listings currently on the market, it may set the stage for a very interesting (and competitive) fall market when (or if) it finally gets started!
For a more comprehensive analysis including average prices, please refer to the 100+ TRREB reports section for direct access to detailed reports on over 38 different TRREB combinations, or click on the above section to view the accompanying slides & video.
10 Year History of Sales and New Listings
While August 2021 sales were higher than the 5-year and 10-year August averages, we did see a reduction from August 2021 to August 2020. This was primarily driven by an abnormally busy summer in 2020 as the market continued to emerge from the COVID related pause during Q2/2020.
416 Sales / New Listing Details
There were 3,003 August sales across all property types within the “416” TRREB zones. Down -10% vs. August 2020, but up +9% vs. the 5-year August average and also up +9% vs. the 10-year August average.
While sales were down vs. July (which is typic given seasonality), the sales-to-new listings ratio (“SNLR”) tightened in the month rising from 64% in July to 71% in August signifying tightening market conditions (i.e., demand > supply).
The detached market SNLR climbed from 72% in July to 74% in August whereas the condo SNLR climbed from 59% in July to 69% in August.
“416” TRREB Zones – August vs. July – 10 yr History of Sales & New Listings
905 Sales / New Listing Details
“905” TRREB Zones – August vs. July – 10 yr History of Sales & New Listings
Detached Inventory At or Near Historically Low Levels!
“416” Detached Inventory
“905” Detached Inventory
This dynamic of record low inventory was not exclusive to detached properties. In fact, the 905 TRREB zones posted record low active listings for an August across all major property types (detached, semi-detached, townhomes, and condos). Within the 416, detached, semi-detached, and townhomes posted the second lowest active listings on record (August 2016 was lowest), while condo active listings remained relatively in line with their 5-year July average — although this may be short lived as listings are dropping quickly.
In this month’s mortgage update video, we explore some of the mortgage and housing related items outlined across the political parties’ platforms. A sample of these items include:
Variable Rate Forecast – as variable rates are linked to a Lenders’/Banks’ prime lending rate, any interest rate movement by the Bank of Canada typically results in an immediate change to variable rates. Based on the most recent outlook, the Bank of Canada has signaled the earliest it would increase its rate would be “the second half of 2022”.
Fixed Rate Forecast – 5-year fixed rates typically follow the Government of Canada 5-year Bond Yields which is the market’s view/prediction of where interest rates will be in the future. After an initial spike in February 2021, bond yields have settled into a range between 0.75 to 1.00. Fixed-rate mortgages have moved in lockstep and also look to have settled in at their current levels outlined in the above rate chart. Based on the current outlook, we do not anticipate any significant changes (up or down) in the near term.